Bayesian factor to estimate the presence of diarrheas in children by Rotavirus in front of condition climatic

  • Neilys González Benítez Centro Meteorológico de Pinar del Río
  • Carlos Alberto Miranda Sierra Centro Meteorológico de Pinar del Río
  • Elba Cruz Rodríguez Instituto de Medicina Tropical Pedro Kouri (IPK)
  • Cristi Darelis Roig Contreras Hospital Pediátrico Provincial de Pinar del Río
  • Misladys Rodríguez Ortega Instituto de Medicina Tropical Pedro Kouri (IPK)
Keywords: Bayesian analysis, Pearson correlation, climatic conditions, Rotavirus, decision making


Medicine faces the challenge of acquiring, analyzing and applying knowledge to solve complex clinical problems. There are innumerable advances that involve the intensive use of technology to correlate the data necessary for decision making. In this article, an estimate of the presence of diarrhea in children due to Rotavirus is carried out against climatic conditions through the Bayesian factor that includes a Pearson correlation, where the posterior distribution is characterized and the Bayes factor is estimated. For this purpose, a series of temporal climatic data and data series of sick patients with rotavirus diarrhea are analyzed. The study was carried out in the municipality of Pinar del Río, in the period from November 2018 to May 2019. The population susceptible to the disease is 516 patients, for a sample of 210 children, aged 1 month from birth to 5 years of age and who were hospitalized at the Pepe Portilla Pediatric Hospital in the province of Pinar del Río. The results obtained through a Pearson linear correlation is that there is a significant correlation well below the P value and it is argued in this regard that, as there is a greater number of precipitations, the greater the number of patients with rotavirus diarrhea. Subsequently, the Bayes Factor is calculated to corroborate what has been raised; obtaining a value equal to 0.124


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How to Cite
González Benítez, N., Miranda Sierra, C. A., Cruz Rodríguez, E., Roig Contreras, C. D., & Rodríguez Ortega, M. (2021). Bayesian factor to estimate the presence of diarrheas in children by Rotavirus in front of condition climatic. Ecuadorian Science Journal, 5(2), 1-14.
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